GAINESVILLE — No. 4 Florida is gunning for an SEC Tournament title starting Friday and securing a No. 1 seed at the NCAA tournament. History says it would improve the Gators’ national championship dream, but coach Todd Golden isn’t so sure. “We definitely want the one seed; don’t get me wrong,” he said Wednesday. “But at this point, we’re in really good spot.” The Gators (27-4) are certainly one of the teams to beat this week — and beyond. The No. 2 seed in Nashville, Tenn., UF will begin quarterfinal play against Thursday’s winner between Missouri and the winner of Wednesday’s opening-round meeting of LSU-Mississippi State. Whoever faces Florida will have to contend with a deep, explosive, physical and highly effective team on both ends of the floor. Four schools rank among the top-15 in analytics guru Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings: top-ranked Duke, No. 2 Houston, No. 3 Auburn and Florida — or the four teams with the inside track to No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament. “I think we can win a national championship,” Golden said. “It’s definitely not going to be easy. Even the best team in America has a less than 10 percent chance to win it. That’s just the math behind it.” Earning a top seed in the Big Dance offers the most favorable path to a title. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 1 seeds have won the national crown 25 of 40 times and are 515-131 (79.7%) while No. 2 seeds have won five titles and are 363-151 (70.6%). “I’m not sure how big of a difference our path would truly be, whether we’re the third or fourth No. 1 seed, or the first or second 2 seed,” Golden said. “Would be pretty similar in terms of the level of team that we compete against.” Blessed with a keenly analytical mind, the 39-year-old Golden surmised Nos. 15 and 16 seeds “are probably pretty equal.” He then noted, “7, 8, 9, 10 seeds — just looking on KenPom at the 25th-best team down to 33, the differentiation between those clubs is probably three points over 100 possessions.” The spoils of a top seed also goes beyond the NCAA’s three-week 68-team college basketball showcase event. Golden aims to continually elevate his program’s profile and accrue selling points on the recruiting trail or in the transfer portal. Hardware and bragging rights are nice, too. “I can make some cases as to why our program has reached some new heights and done some really special things — and I think people appreciate that about it,” Golden said. “But that would be a nice little cherry on top of our regular season if we’re able to get the 1 seed on Sunday.” A season ago, Florida wasn’t as deep as the current squad and ran out of gas playing four games in four days. This week, the Gators — featuring a 9- or even 10-man rotation — would have to win three games Friday-Sunday. “Getting the double-bye for us was really, really important,” Golden said. “I think three in three is reasonable with this group. So we’re going to go try to win this thing. We’re going to give it all we got.” In the process, the Gators would avenge last season’s 19-point loss to Auburn during championship game and earn Florida’s first SEC Tournament title since 2014’s Final Four team. The SEC postseason honors, or lack thereof, provide additional fuel. Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. , the team’s leading scorer and go-to player in the crunch time, earned first-team All-SEC honors from both the media and coaches. Sporting News also named Clayton first-team All-American Tuesday, the first UF player in school history to land on any first-team All-American team. “Definitely surprising that’s the first in history,” he said. “Just thankful, thankful for all my teammates, all my coaches. I’ve been saying all year you know winning, a lot of stuff comes from winning. “This is a product of that, so I’m just thankful.” Yet no other Gators made the Associated Press second team or the coaches’ second or third All-SEC teams. Sophomore power forward Alex Condon is the most obvious snub; he was honored three times as SEC Player of the Week, posted seven double-doubles and is the leading rebounder on a team ranked second nationally in the category . Senior shooting guard Alijah Martin, the tone-setter for a defense ranked 11th in efficiency by KenPom, was left off the coaches’ All-All-Defensive team. Sophomore Tommy Haugh had a strong case for the coaches’ Sixth Man Award, though Missouri’s Caleb Grill had one of his own, including a 22-point showing at Florida during the Tigers’ 83-82 upset win on Jan. 14. “Some of the all-league teams landing where they did, it provided some really good motivation for our guys to go to Nashville and make a statement,” Golden said. “I told our guys that we have the opportunity if we go and play well, then we’re making the right statement. And if we go there and we don’t play well, we have nothing to talk about.” “Our guys are using this trip and this SEC Tournament as an opportunity to continue to play with the chip on our shoulder.” The three Florida teams to win SEC Tournament titles each reached the Final Four, with the 2006 and 2007 teams going all the way. Yet seven of the last 10 winners of the conference title did not reach the final weekend of the Big Dance. In 2024, champ Auburn lost in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, but the 2019 Tigers won the SEC and reached the Final Four. Given its first-round exit from the Big Dance, Golden had assistant coach John Andrzejek research whether winning this week would be a benefit or a detriment. “The data tells you that it really doesn’t matter,” Golden said. “It can go either way.” The best plan, he concluded, is to leave nothing to chance. “Our goal is to win nine in a row right now,” he said.
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