On March 6, during one of his impromptu news conferences in the Oval Office, President Donald Trump was asked whether he was considering any changes to U.S. policy on NATO , the U.S.-led transatlantic alliance that has kept the peace in Europe for more than 75 years. Trump's answer was, in a word, Trumpian—if NATO members wanted America's protection, they better start opening their wallets a little wider and spending more on defense themselves. "Well I've said that to them," Trump said , referencing Washington's European allies. "I said, 'If you're not gonna pay, we're not gonna defend.'" Trump has voiced similar sentiments in the past, providing no consolation to Europeans, who have felt overwhelming anxiousness after a turbulent two weeks. In that timeframe U.S. officials sat down with Russian diplomats for the first time in years, Trump had a rhetorical boxing match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on TV, and the Trump administration paused U.S. military and intelligence support to Kyiv. The big question hovering over the entire continent like the darkest of storm clouds can no longer be avoided: is the U.S. still committed to Europe's security? Say what you want about Trump's rantings and ravings. But what can't be in doubt is their effectiveness. European politicians, ministers, and heads-of-state are so petrified about Washington potentially turning its back that hard discussions are now occurring about what the continent must do to take more ownership of its neighborhood. Faced with a U.S. president who could literally wake up one morning and decide that Europe no longer holds much value, the Europeans are in the early stages of enacting policies that would have been fantastical only a few months before. Traditionally, even the smallest reforms in Europe can take months of painstaking, boring deliberation. That's what makes the last few days so breathtaking. European countries are ditching their decades-old assumptions and becoming proactive players in their own right. National defense, which for decades was viewed as a low priority thanks to a relatively benign security environment and the U.S. security umbrella, is now an issue everybody is talking about. And for once, Europe is going beyond flirtations with reform and actually proposing policies that would free up more funds for defense budgets, even if it comes at the cost of higher deficits. Days before the European Union ( EU ) held a summit last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented a package, named "Rearm Europe," that would offer EU countries loans of up to €150 billion for the purpose of purchasing more defense platforms and investing in Europe's homegrown defense-industry. The EU executive arm is also attempting to reform deficit rules to allow its members to boost their military spending without incurring the usual financial penalties. According to von der Leyen, if every EU member increases their defense budgets by 1.5 percent of GDP, another €650 billion could be raised . The European Council agreed to study the proposal in more detail. Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, is following in the EU's footsteps. Friedrich Merz, Germany's soon-to-be chancellor, has agreed to a deal with the Social Democrats , his likely partner to form a new coalition government, to tinker with the country's debt-break. The idea, which would require a constitutional amendment, aims to allow Berlin to revitalize the Bundeswehr without having to worry about debt rules. In short, the break wouldn't apply to defense funding beyond 1 percent of GDP. This comes as Merz, a committed transatlanticist, has stressed that his tenure will be geared toward lessening Germany's dependence on Washington across-the-board. "My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA," he said after his election win. To Emmanuel Macron , these words are music to the ears. The French president, who once warned that NATO was becoming brain-dead , has been preaching the virtues of European strategic autonomy from the moment he stepped into the Élysée Palace in 2017. He wants Europe to stop relying on America and start doing more for itself, a fairly common-sense concept that nevertheless remains controversial for the likes of Poland and the Baltics, who don't want to do anything that could cause more of a rift between Washington and Europe. But with Germany more sympathetic to the idea than it was in the past, Macron's vision is coming into renewed focus. How lasting will these changes be? Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York, is taking a wait-and-see approach. "Europe's climb to autonomy in defense will be long and steep, not so much for economic and technological reasons—they have considerable strengths in both areas—but because mustering the unity, within and among countries, to mobilize those resources to beef up their armed forces will prove difficult," he told Newsweek . In other words, we are at the very beginnings of a journey. Whether it lasts or dies the moment Trump leaves office is too early to say. The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
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