CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) - Last November, Virginians showed up the voting polls at above-average rates, according to U.S. Census data . However, Larry Sabato, director of UVA’s Center for Politics, predicts voter turnout rates will drop in this gubernatorial race.

“Virginia had the highest turnout on the entire East Coast from top to bottom,” Sabato said. “We have a highly educated electorate, and education is really the key variable here. The more education you have, the more likely you are to vote because you you see the stakes and once you know the stakes, you’re inclined to participate.”

Last year, Virginia voter participation neared 73%, but Sabato said that percentage will likely not be replicated this November.

“A presidential election is obviously the peak of voter turnout, and that’s especially true in a state like Virginia,” Sabato said. “I think this will apply this year; normally you drop about 15 percentage points.”

Still, in a state race, 50% turnout is not too bad.

“Now, is that a good thing?” Sabato said. “Well, you know, we always wish everyone would vote, but it’s still pretty healthy.”

Still, Sabato anticipates a degree of variation in that estimate, taking into account a year of government layoffs from Washington that might galvanize Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads, and Richmond’s federal workforce.

“People vote for lots of reasons, but I’ve always said four emotions,” Sabato said. “Love, hate, hope and fear. And among those four hate and fear and drive more voters out to the polls than love and hope.”

Sabato said Democrats are likely hoping that anger will fuel high participation in favor of candidate Abigail Spanberger.

“Democrats certainly hope that you have a very strong turn out among federal government workers, whether they’ve been fired or not,” Sabato said, “because remember, the ones who haven’t been fired are still looking at their e-mail a lot.”

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