The New York Yankees arrived in spring training with a little bit of swagger and a lot of motivation.

Juan Soto was gone, but Max Fried and Cody Bellinger were in. Aaron Judge was outspoken and confident. Jasson Dominguez was fresh-faced and eager. Devin Williams was new and bearded (and that was OK). Aaron Boone had a contract extension, the rotation had too many starting pitchers, and the entire team had a chip on its shoulder after losing in the World Series last fall. PECOTA and FanGraphs expected the Yankees to have the best record in the American League, and FanGraphs thought they’d win the competitive AL East by three games.

Less than a month later, the American League feels up for grabs, and the AL East has become a five-team free-for-all of the maimed, the battered and the uncertain.

The Los Angeles Dodgers still stand apart in the National League, but the perceived gap in the American League seems to grow smaller with every MRI and breaking news alert out of Steinbrenner Field. The Yankees, according to Roster Resource, have the AL’s largest payroll by $35 million, but it’s an advantage completely erased now that their $36 million ace can’t pitch.

Gerrit Cole, the six-time All-Star who this winter elected to stay with the Yankees on a four-year, $144 million deal, is headed for Tommy John surgery. This after reigning rookie of the year Luis Gil suffered a lat strain, designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton went down with pain in both elbows and DJ LeMahieu fell out of the third base competition because of a calf injury.

PECOTA no longer has the Yankees as the favorites in the American League, expecting them to finish two wins behind the Texas Rangers and only one-fifth of a win ahead of the Baltimore Orioles. FanGraphs’ projections have the Yankees’ advantage in the AL East down from three games to less than two. Without a clear favorite, FanGraphs is giving 11 AL teams at least a 35-percent chance of making the playoffs (compared to seven such teams in the National League).

That’s what happens when a perceived front-runner loses a key element of its on-paper advantage.

The Yankees can’t find a third baseman. The Boston Red Sox might have too many of them. The Yankees just lost their ace. The Rangers just watched Jacob deGrom go two perfect innings in his spring debut. The Yankees keep getting bad news from their medical department. The Houston Astros might have dodged a bullet with Christian Walker’s sore oblique.

Certainly, the Yankees are still good — highest projected WAR in the AL, still with time to make a last-minute improvement — but without Cole, they’re not as special. Players who were on the bubble for roster spots a month ago are now competing for semi-regular DH at-bats. Marcus Stroman, who came into Yankees camp frustrated by his apparent lack of a starting job, now looks like the team’s No. 4 starter. It’s suddenly worth wondering if the Yankees need reinforcements just a few weeks before Opening Day.

And just as suddenly, the cliched words of hope and confidence coming from the Orioles or Rangers or Red Sox or Astros — or, really, from almost any AL team other than the Chicago White Sox — feel a little less pie-in-the-sky. Why couldn’t one of them win the pennant? ​​

The AL East is especially ripe for the taking. The Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation has stayed healthy, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still with the Toronto Blue Jays and hitting well this spring, the Orioles are projected by FanGraphs to generate the best position player WAR in baseball, and the Red Sox now have Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman upgrading their chances. FanGraphs still thinks the Yankees are the favorites in the AL East, but the projected fifth-place finisher (Tampa Bay) is holding an 11.2-percent chance of winning the division. (The Arizona Diamondbacks, projected to finish second in the AL West, have inferior odds behind the Dodgers.)

Beyond the vaunted East, the entire American League has opened up.

Fried still gives the Yankees a legitimate ace, but the No. 2 Yankees starter is now Carlos Rodon, and four AL teams — the Red Sox, Astros, Minnesota Twins and Seattle Mariners — have a No. 2 starter projected by ZiPS to be more valuable than him. FanGraphs expects the Red Sox, Twins, Rangers, Mariners and Detroit Tigers to have more valuable rotations than the Yankees, whose collective starters are not particularly impressive without Cole. FanGraphs expects only the Orioles to generate a higher position player WAR in the American League, but the Astros and Blue Jays are within a half win. The Rangers are also close, and they won the whole thing two years ago.

Without Cole, the field of contenders in the AL is far more wide-open than in the NL where PECOTA still expects the Dodgers to win 10 games more than any other team in baseball while giving three other NL contenders — the Braves, Mets and Chicago Cubs — at least an 84 percent chance of making the playoffs. No AL team is given playoff odds that high, but almost all of them have a 20 percent chance or better of playing in October.

Such is the parity in an American League without Gerrit Cole.

Granted, the Orioles are going to open the season without Grayson Rodriguez. The Mariners won’t have George Kirby out of the gate. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello and Wilyer Abreu behind schedule. Few teams make it through spring training without some bumps along the way, and some issues end up more devastating than expected. Others are forgotten by June.

But when one of the game’s best starting pitchers is lost for the year, it can make a preseason favorite — pinstripes and all — look a little more like everyone else.